RCMs and adaptation planning

by kucheka on November 27, 2012

A new paper discussed over at Real Climate:

Deser et al. imply that information about the future regional climate is more blurred than previously anticipated because of large-scale atmospheric flow responsible for variations in regional climates. They found that regional temperatures and precipitation for the next 50 years may be less predictable due to the chaotic nature of the large-scale atmospheric flow. This has implications for climate change downscaling and climate change adaptation, and suggests a need to anticipate a wider range of situations in climate risk analyses…

I believe Deser et al.‘s results are important and a wake-up-call, because climate change projections used for the studies of climate change impacts have usually been based on a limited amount of regional climate model (RCM) and global climate model (GCM) simulations. Thus, they may not have sufficiently acknowledged the wide range due to internal variability. More…

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